Is Farrer WON? (Federal by-election) [edited]

The short answer: YES

and: NO.....      not yet.

Really? But why?

The result for the NSW Division of Farrer (ie the Federal House of Representatives seat) is not in doubt. The informal, quick two-candidate preferred (TCP) check has shown that Mr David Farley (One Nation) has an unbeatable lead. But well short of 50% +.

There are rules about making a "Declaration of the Poll". That final step will happen next week.

It is not possible to Declare Farrer on the basis of an "Assured TCP" calculation (see further AEC below).

Postal Votes (PV) have the key.

Closing day for Postal Votes in Farrer is today (Friday). There may be a few more valid envelopes and then votes to process. In fact there always ought to be some on hand - it is very poor procedure to open and count only a few votes in the same moment.

As I recall my objective was to have about 10 accepted PV envelopes to be opened and ballot papers to be counted in the very last count of an election. (I am really sorry to see the AEC says late today [Friday] it has 4 PV on hand* to process, with 12,994 already counted.)

It is important to ensure the identity of the voters can not be guessed. If there was (say) one PV to count and then those ballot papers were added to the numbers that would mean the voter's vote and name was revealed to all who saw the envelope. (Our votes are "secret".) I would not be comfortable with 4 envelopes on their own.

*Footnote: 5 pm Monday 25/05/26 Envelopes awaiting processing = 0 

(12,951 PV ballots in the count)

To "Declare the winner" the AEC needs all valid votes in the scrutiny (count). Then preferences can be distributed.

In distribution of preferences the officials end up with two imaginary "heaps" of ballot papers. All ballot papers go into one heap or the other. One heap has those who voted first for Mr Farley. In addition, that heap has all those who gave Mr Farley higher preference (ie, lower number!) than they gave his remaining opponent. She may have had a 12 whilst he had an 11 - so that one goes to him.

(The above applies to lower house Federal elections and Victorian State elections; not NSW. In NSW preferences are optional and ballot papers may become "exhausted" in the distribution = they run out of preferences.)

In an exhaustive distribution the successful candidate will have at least 50% +. For Farrer that is clear at the end of distributing all preferences on all the ballot papers of the 10 losing candidates, excluding the "runner-up".

Logically, that means any ballot paper which gave "12" to Mr Farley must end in the alternative "heap". OK?

Now, that is my imaginary picture. Ballot papers are carefully preserved in their bundles and packs and by the sources. They are treated with all due respect and repacked with care as they were originally received in type and polling place categories. The election is able to be "reconstituted" if that is required (eg, by the Court).

The AEC has published a full explanation of how "Declaration of the Poll" in Farrer will occur. This they call the "5 Tests". (It has the actual Farrer numbers in the explanation and is helpfully updated.)

https://www.aec.gov.au/voting/counting/formal-poll-declarations.htm

AEC Tally Room 09/05/26 

https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-31633-118.htm

BTW - Preferences is where the "donkey vote" comes into play! Did the donkey voter just go down the 12 boxes, 1 to 12? That means they gave Millthorpe 2 and Farley 8. That ballot ends up in the Millthorpe "pile". What if they went in reverse? Then they gave Farley 5 and Millthorpe 11. Obviously that goes to the Farley "pile".

(I saw an AEC reel saying the Declaration will be on Thursday, 28 May 2026.)

Yours sincerely

Allen Hampton

Coburg

achamptonmob@gmail.com